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December 17, 2007

Can Search Usage Predict Election Outcomes?

That may be a bit of a stretch, but there's no doubt that online search behavior can be an insightful window in the minds of consumers and voters. For this reason, our friends at Yahoo! News included Yahoo! Buzz data (which is based on search usage) in their new Political Dashboard. In addition to Buzz data, the dashboard includes traditional opinion poll data, campaign fundraising tallies and even predictions market data based on a sort of stock market for politicians.


Dashboard1


Check out Yodel Anecdotal for more info and let us know what you think below.


Graham Mudd
Yahoo! Search

Permalink | Comments (32) | | Bookmark | del.icio.us | digg | Filed In: Search

Comments

Great site

Posted by: Light19 | December 18, 2007 08:09 AM

I don't think that search usage shows an accurate depiction of what people's interests are at all. For instance. I recently searched for Barack Obama. I have no interest in voting for Barack Obama. I just needed to find an article that I could site that talks about how he made sure that the Born Alive Infant Protection Act did not pass in IL. For those who don't know, sometimes aborted babies survive the actual abortion, so doctors would leave them to die.

Anyway... in short, not all searches are reflecting a positive image.

Posted by: Tim | December 19, 2007 09:48 AM

think it can definitely predict election outcomes, except that it will not count the older population, who is not that savvy with the Internet for search, but usually vote.

Posted by: koreanplywood | December 26, 2007 06:02 AM

I think it can only predict election outcomes to some extent. Search usage will never be able to grasp a full sample of the total population. With other words the picture it shows is never complete. But is an indicator for sure!

Posted by: product design | January 3, 2008 04:48 AM

Since search queries are undoubtedly an indication of searchers' interests or preferences I think that to some extent, search usage would provide a relatively accurate prediction of election outcomes. If we rely on search queries as a means of effective online advertising then why wouldn't it also allow us to gauge political preferences?

Posted by: Mike Mothner | January 3, 2008 01:51 PM

Thanks for a very informative article......who knows.....it may very well predict the election outcome !

Posted by: Vectorpedia | January 6, 2008 04:48 AM

The swing vote is always by the people who cant make up their minds till the last minute so I would say no for a real accurate gauge

Posted by: Chris Heath | January 26, 2008 01:34 AM

Definitely something to take into consideration. Helps to see who is being researched the most.

Posted by: Goran Giertz - Website Marketing | February 3, 2008 07:12 AM

good article, but i think it can not predict election outcomes, there are too many other better ways to do it

Posted by: sarah | February 5, 2008 05:51 PM

I think it can only predict election outcomes to some extent.

Posted by: son ilanlar | February 9, 2008 02:14 AM

Sure, to a certain extent search history can provide information about the thoughts of people, however without more data relative to the context of the search the study would be flawed.

Posted by: Los Angeles Criminal Defense Lawyer | March 6, 2008 07:49 AM

Definitely something to take into consideration. Helps to see who is being researched the most.

Posted by: den | March 6, 2008 10:46 AM

I think it is important to consider the pool of searchers when considering the results of any research. Clearly the findings can be flawed by abuse and faulty science.

Posted by: Long Beach Criminal Defense Attorney | March 8, 2008 10:00 AM

I don't know whether search engine usage really represents the interests of people.There are countless reason behind that but the most important one is that there are very few people who take part in online surveys (voying) so,it can only depict the opinion of a few not a mass.

Posted by: Dr. Sandy at Blogging Guides | March 11, 2008 12:54 AM

If the survey is measured re clicks then it maybe more effective.

Posted by: steve jenings | March 26, 2008 03:09 AM

How about predicting via a magic bread machine?

Posted by: Eric | March 31, 2008 09:30 PM

I think it is important to consider the pool of searchers when considering the results of any research. Clearly the findings can be flawed by abuse and faulty science.

Posted by: güzel sözler | April 7, 2008 12:12 PM

I don't know whether search engine usage really represents the interests of people

Posted by: you tube | April 7, 2008 12:13 PM

this is a easy way for it

Posted by: Türkisch Chat | April 18, 2008 11:31 AM

Nice tool for the political season 2008...

Posted by: Mark | April 27, 2008 12:46 AM

Heating up the election atmosphere. Yahoo! is most innovative.

Posted by: 4d baby scan | May 5, 2008 01:55 AM

Check out http://www.predictify.com/ You can make all sorts of cool predictions on politics, sports, pop culture, etc.

Posted by: Jorge | May 9, 2008 01:29 PM

Thanks.

Posted by: Top Flite | May 13, 2008 11:29 AM

this is a very great tool.. thank you very much..

Posted by: Tcs Fiu | May 14, 2008 04:23 AM

good article, but i think it can not predict election outcomes, there are too many other better ways to do it

Posted by: movies | May 14, 2008 05:06 PM

Thanks for infos.

Posted by: yemek oyunları | May 15, 2008 10:37 PM

Of course. That may be a bit of a stretch, but there's no doubt that online search behavior can be an insightful window in the minds of consumers and voters.

Posted by: Logo Design Guru | May 16, 2008 02:32 AM

Thanks for a very informative article...

Posted by: Giysi Giydirme | May 17, 2008 07:17 AM

Yahoo! always cares about public and community.

Posted by: Logo Design Blog | May 22, 2008 04:10 AM

thanks nice text

Posted by: new software | May 22, 2008 04:09 PM

thanks nice text

Posted by: new software | May 22, 2008 04:12 PM

It stands to reason that search engine usage can predict election outcomes. If 90% of search engine enquiries are for one particular candidate, then chances are that candidate is going to win.

Posted by: Alec Bobdon | May 26, 2008 12:24 AM